Single-family build-to-rent community completions through the first nine months of 2023 were 35 percent ahead of the previous year's record-setting pace.
It's a trend that Northmarq forecasts will continue into 2024, as developers work through a crowded construction pipeline.
Starts, though, tell a different story.
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Capital has been more difficult to obtain for new developments, and the approximately 49,000 units that broke ground through nine months reflect an 11 percent year-over-year decline.
Given rising mortgage rates, some homebuilders are transitioning a share of their lots that were originally intended to be for-sale homes into for-rent communities, according to Northmarq.
"The lag between starts and deliveries is resulting in mixed construction trends for single-family rental homes in 2023," the report said.
"While final year-end totals will not be available until early 2024, construction trends are on pace to diverge further."
Hence, deliveries of single-family rentals were forecast to reach approximately 78,000 units in 2023, up 20 percent from the 2022 total, and starts will show a steep slowing in the second half, according to Northmarq, with the volume of construction starts for new single-family rental homes is expected to drop 27 percent from 2022.
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