American retailers this year have something in common with the famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil: they are trying to decide whether spring has arrived and it is safe to emerge from their burrows and go about their business as before – or whether they should duck for cover.
The year 2023 turned out to be a good one for retailers – the feared recession was staved off and consumers opened their pocketbooks.
"Nevertheless, those tailwinds are not necessarily sustainable," the National Retail Federation warned in its January 2024 economic review. "2023 was full of inconsistencies and uncertainties and not a smooth one. Consumers kept consuming when we expected they would have done the opposite. There were recession fears, regional bank failures and inflation, and the Fed continued to raise interest rates despite poor consumer confidence."
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