Bond traders are getting certain that a long-time aberration in how Treasury bond prices and yields work is about to head back to normal.
They expect that the yield on the 10-year Treasury will rise above the 2-year (though academics often monitor the 3-month and the 10-year), Bloomberg reports.
A look at the numbers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' FRED website shows that July 5, 2022, was when the yields on the 2-year and 10-year Treasurys were the same. Since then, the 10-year sunk below, and there's been an inverted yield curve. The 3-month and 10-year difference inverted on October 25, 2022. A long haul, either way you look at it.
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