Making Sense of Renter Migration Patterns

A driver in the multifamily industry is the long-standing patterns of population migration throughout the US. They typically move from once heavily settled areas like in the Northeast to the South. But this data is not necessarily a reliable indicator for apartment landlords that would like to get a handle on demographic trends affecting their business.

Not that data providers haven’t tried. One recent example is Apartment List, which analyzed data on millions of searches to see where its users are looking to move. It’s not exactly the most accurate way to capture this movement. A search, after all, isn’t the same as a move and users of one system aren’t necessarily representative of the broader population.

But often imperfect information is useful. While you could use United States Postal Service change of address data, that isn’t cheap, and the Census Bureau isn’t necessarily easy to navigate. So, here’s what can be learned easily for free.

Searches between same-state metros and cross-state are less common.

Between 2021 to 2023, the percentages of people searching for apartments in different same-state metros or in different states have fallen. For cross-metro, the percentages have gone from 41.4% in 2021 to 40.7% in 2022 and 38.5% in 2023. Cross-state searches went from 28.3% in 2021, 27.7% in 2022, and 25.6% in 2023.

There is some Census Bureau state-level population data that is of interest, at least for 2022. “Those estimates show that the states that lost population due to domestic migration in 2023 lost less than they did in 2022, while the states that gained population gained less. But even as domestic migration has slowed, the flows show a clear continuation of trends that we’ve seen in recent years,” Apartment List noted.

People still head from the West Coast and Northeast for Sunbelt and Mountain West

West Coast and Northeast states kept losing residents and the Sunbelt and Mountain West picked them up. States with the highest gains were South Carolina (+1.6%), Delaware (+1.0%), North Carolina (+0.9%), Tennessee (+0.9%), and Florida (+0.9%). Those with the biggest losses were New York (-1.1%), California (-0.9%), Hawaii (-0.8%), Alaska (-0.8%), and Illinois (-0.7%).

California and New York continue to lose the largest absolute numbers, while Florida and Texas pick up the most. As the site put it, California and New York keep losing renters to Texas and Florida, at least if moves follow searches.

Cities getting the most out-of-state attention

Durham, NC gets 62.7% of its searches from people living out of town. Following are Charleston, SC (60.9%); Lakeland, FL (60.1%); Stockton, CA (57.7%); Cape Coral, FL (56.6%); Colorado Springs, CO (56.6%); North Port, FL (55.6%); Bridgeport, CT (55.4%); Greenville, SC (55.4%); and Greensboro, NC (54.9%).