As a torrent of new apartments floods many U.S. markets, the question arises: which markets will best survive the inundation?

The 670,000 units expected to come online this year will far exceed the previous record of 440,000 that poured in in 2023. But supply will not be the only determinant of which metros benefit and indeed, it many areas it could prove to be a negative. Factors like job growth and consumer sentiment are far more important.

"Markets where supply is more reasonable and less drastic will have an advantage," according to a study by RealPage Analytics. The study tips its hat in favor of Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus and New York as the biggest winners. Each saw occupancy rise above 94% in 2023 with changes in annual effective asking rents well above national levels, while construction was "reasonable" and only a modest supply hike expected in 2024.