Anyone holding out hope for a March cut in the federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve should pack it away now. The Consumer Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month in January 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, it was 3.1%. That's down from the 3.4% of December 2023.

That the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates early had been, to put it politely, a stretch, though not impossible. Fed Chair Jerome Powell outright said it in January. "Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don't think it is likely that the Committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting," he said.

Things could have been better in January, but, once again, the big driver of inflation was shelter, which contributed more than two-thirds of the jump, a 0.6% month-over-month step up. Within shelter, the real culprit was owners' equivalent rent, up 0.6% month over month, compared to rent increasing 0.4%. But it wasn't the only contributor. Food jumped 0.4%.