The question of refinancing commercial real estate properties in the coming year has become one of life's great mysteries. At the opening of 2023, the assumptions were that inflation would be curtailed, transactions would renew, price discovery would happen again, and all would be fine with the world of CRE.

Everyone knows what happened then. Last year was beset with ongoing economic thrashing, high costs of refinancing, bank failures, worried banks tightening credit, even fewer transactions, and more concerns about what will happen. In the last few months, conditions seem to have turned favorable. Inflation has been falling – although this week's numbers have given the market pause – the economy has still seen growth, and the jobs market is still keeping people working. On the other hand, the amount of CRE debt maturing this year has increased from $659 billion to $929 billion due to lenders granting extensions and modifications to loans over the past few years and Fed officials have made clear that interest rate cuts won't happen before March.

Welcome to the one thing certain today – uncertainty. There's no sitting back after good news, only monitoring everything all the time.