A new report from ATTOM highlights U.S. counties most exposed to risk during a downturn in the residential market, as well as those least likely to suffer. Many in the former category are already experiencing those effects as housing costs swallow up more than a third of average local wages.

"Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates," ATTOM noted.

By these measures, 25 of the 50 counties considered at highest risk in 4Q 2023 were located in the Chicago metro (five), New York City (one), New Jersey suburbs adjoining New York City (five), and a stretch of inland California (14). Two counties in the Philadelphia metro and two near St. Louis, MO, were also in the top 50.