The view from the ground on debt coming due in 2024 is something over $820 billion, according to MSCI. And that's not counting $214 billion from 2023 that weren't refinanced or, as the firm noted, apparently neither explicitly refinanced or sold

"Given that property owners are not inclined to take a loss on the sale of an asset, nor refinance in a high interest rate environment, we have deemed these loans, 'likely extensions', indicating we believe that these loans have been granted some short-term extension to their maturity date," they wrote. "Taken together, we estimate that as much as $870b of mortgages tied to assets in our database could come due in 2024."

It's a staggering amount, with 2021 originations being the largest vintage. "Given these loans were originated at record high prices and record low interest rates, we anticipate that many of these borrowers will look to their lenders in the hopes of extending the maturity of their loans," MSCI wrote. "Not every lender will be willing or able to extend however, making this vintage of loans a prime target for those looking for opportunities in the dislocation."