Ventas is far from a newcomer to senior housing. The company's April business update shows that out of 1,400 properties that it owns, 800 are in senior housing. In February, the company expected to undertake $300 million in senior housing investments during the first half of 2024.

The argument the company has set out is that market conditions, compelling on a number of fronts, make further investments into senior housing unusually attractive. The average annual population growth in the 80-year-old plus cohort will be between 700,000 and 800,000 by 2030, a more than 24% growth rate. Fueling that is the leading edge of baby boomers who turn 80 in 2026. They estimate about 18 million of 65-plus aged population increase between 2010 and 2030. The 65-year-olds are estimated to live an additional 20 years.

And yet, there's not enough senior housing. U.S. construction starts are at their lowest since 2009. Ventas estimates that about 99% of its senior housing portfolio (SHOP) is "free from competing construction starts in Q4 2023." Practically speaking, that probably means two to three years before competing offerings could be in place.