The March jobs report was another blowout one. There were 303,000 new jobs, versus the median expected forecast of 200,000 (Dow Jones) to 214,000 (Bloomberg), with unemployment at 3.8%. The increase is far higher than the average monthly gain of 231,000 over the last 12 months. And average hourly wages over the last 12 months are at a 4.1% gain, much higher than actual inflation let alone target.
The details are important, but so is the hazier picture of what this might mean for interest rates this year.
The big jobs gains were in healthcare (72,000 versus prior 12-month average of 60,000); government (71,000 versus prior average of 54,000); construction (39,000 versus 19,000); and leisure and hospitality (49,000 versus 37,000 and it's finally hit the February 2020 pre-pandemic level). That's 231,000 total, or 76.2% of all additions.
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