The world of commercial real estate seems to be resting on one delay after another.
The Federal Reserve is unsure when rate cuts might happen — if they happen. Price discovery was supposed to start happening a year or two ago when transaction volumes picked up, except they didn't. And now, loans reaching maturity are being stretched out as borrowers and lenders wait to see if lower rates come and make refinancing easier, taking a weight off everyone's back.
However, the uncertainty is only increasing. MSCI Real Assets last month noted that $214 billion in loans that should have matured during 2023 apparently were neither refinanced nor sold.
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