If one area of commercial real estate has remained steadiest, it's single-tenant net-lease properties, claims Marcus & Millichap.

As of March, the number of major U.S. markets with sub-4 percent single-tenant vacancy matched the count from the same period five years ago, with national vacancy down 10 basis points during that stretch, they wrote. The firm points to the continued strength of the labor market and says that has supported increases in retail spending beyond inflation for real growth. Real increases in wages have also contributed by giving people on average more money to spend after price inflation.

There's been a new benchmark for quarterly core retail sales set during the first three months of 2024, they said. It's not that inflation isn't causing households to prioritize necessities and tighten their budgets — people are. But they are "also reserving more of their incomes for eating out and experiences, a dynamic that is aiding foot traffic and patronage at net-leased retail spaces. Should these trends continue amid a pullback in construction and historically low vacancy, it will reinforce positive leasing activity and prompt retailers to execute expansion initiatives."