Immigration Clouds Understanding of Generation Demographic Trends

Understanding changing demographic patterns, especially trends affecting Generation Y and Generation Z, can help investors make better informed decisions and unlock new investment opportunities, according to Aaron Jodka, Collier’s research director for U.S. capital markets.

Generation Y – the 73.1 million Americans born between 1981 and 1996 who are considered the millennial generation – makes up about 21.7% of the U.S. population. They comprise the bulk of the U.S. workforce. Millennials also have the second highest birth rate in American history, following the Baby Boomers, he noted. Real estate investors have noticed, building new apartments in urban areas targeted toward them and going after their retail spending power.

Generation Z, the Zoomers, are generally defined as individuals born between 1997 and 2012. They number 69.6 million people, or 20.7% of the population. In every year since 1997, the percentage of Gen Z’ers born has been lower than the equivalent percentage of Gen Y’ers as a share of the country’s population.

“Gen Z’s smaller size has had a ripple effect on the economy, resulting in lower college enrollment, concerns about future real estate demand, and the need for property redevelopment,” Jodka wrote.

However, he contended that the numbers gap between the generations might be less than it appears given the rate of growth of immigration, which is higher than some projections. The result has been a continuing trend toward faster population growth. “Historically, immigrants to the U.S. are older, per Migrationpolicy.org, with fewer young children than the population overall.”

A larger population would also mean an increased need for housing, consumer goods, and jobs. This would have implications for various asset classes, especially multifamily and industrial, and could bolster a recovery in fundamentals and investment sales activity, Jodka commented.