A macroeconomic research company — the innocent and guilty will remain nameless today — just informed GlobeSt.com that conditions were moving toward a July rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Obsession with data is understandable. Information under analysis can tell a lot, but it can miss psychological factors that drive how people make decisions. In this case, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear at a European Central Bank policy forum today in Portugal that while things were moving in the right direction again, the Fed is in no hurry.

"The last [inflation] reading and the one before it to a lesser, lesser extent, suggest that we are getting back on the disinflationary path," CNBC reported. (The Federal Reserve had not posted Powell's remarks at the time of writing.) "We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy."