It's a "good news but things will be pretty uncomfortable for maybe a long time" look at CRE by Goldman Sachs analyst Caitlin Burrows, as Benzinga reported.
One of the biggest problems in commercial real estate has been the crash of transaction volumes. Year over year, sales fell precipitously. Some of that is exaggerated in a sense. The amount of capital that poured into CRE during the pandemic, under a zero-interest rate policy when investors were trying to find ways to get a good return, drove prices and valuations upward. The historical top of any market makes for a standard, not a baseline. Almost by definition, it would be impossible to maintain.
Like climbing a tree and slipping a fall was inevitable, and like such a tumble, it has caused damage. After the Global Financial Crisis, it took eight quarters of decline before conditions began to improve, Burrows noted in her report.
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