Looking at every bit of economic data as a form of divination has become a national pastime. When will the next reveal bring us to the heart of the Fed and the magic moment when they give up and cut rates?
But nothing is that certain, even for economists. On Friday, the June employment data comes out. Even that is only a first step because there are two sequential monthly chances for revisions, many of which recently have cut back on job creation in previous months.
The Dow Jones roundup of economists' projections for Friday's June job report expects 200,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.0%, the same as in May. Bloomberg's survey of economists projects 190,000 new jobs with unemployment also at 4%. Both surveys expect year-over-year wage increases of 3.9%, which Bloomberg says is the smallest increase in three years and which would certainly be down from the 4.1% of May.
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