The National Federation of Independent Business has been tracking the optimism of small businesses for years. It said the result in June 2024 was the highest reading of the year to date but also noted that this was the 30th month below the historical average.

In short, 2024's small business optimism is at the level you'd have found right after the Global Financial Crisis, a time of understandable massive pessimism.

The Bank of America Institute used internal data to analyze small businesses and what might be driving their reactions. Thinking reasonably that profits likely correlate to business attitudes, the financial institution looked at the ratio of inflows to outflows, which they saw as a good proxy for profits. It reached its highest point since March 2023. But it was still lower than the average over the last few years, and that includes some bad stretches during the pandemic.