Opinions by top economists — the ones with power to influence monetary policy — have suddenly taken another turn. After months of hot reads on inflation and the labor market, things have calmed a bit. Suddenly, the experts are showing more confidence — sort of. Here are some examples:
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly told reporters that while progress on inflation will always be "bumpy … there are reasons to believe that we're heading in the right direction." Rental price appreciation, a large driver of inflation, has been coming down, although there's a mismatch between supply and demand for housing. She expects inflation will decrease gradually. However, she said it's unclear when it would be appropriate to adjust rates or other policies.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem thinks the current federal fund's range of 5.25% to 5.50% is restrictive enough to work "inflation down to the Fed's 2% target." The kicker? Over time so there's little risk to the economy or labor market. Recent data said there is progress in lowering inflation. Even with the latest core Consumer Price Index reduction — the first actual drop in four years, according to Reuters — he still wants "more evidence that inflation can be expected to converge to 2% going forward." Labor market conditions are moved back to pre-pandemic levels.
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