Many analyst takes on commercial real estate markets have been in terms of where loans stood. This includes CMBS, banks and what have you – but the question has been percentages of delinquencies or properties in special servicing.
There's been an assumption that banks in particular have been indulging in the practice colloquially called "extend and pretend." In April, Autonomous Research estimated that 40% of bank CRE loans maturing this year actually being holdovers from 2023 and that banks on average are reserving 8% of their CRE portfolios, which is about five times more than normal. PGIM Real Estate that expected bank CRE maturities was up 35% from previous estimates.
But where the concrete meets the pavement, if you will, is when lenders take back properties, whether because borrowers have walked away, or the hammer has come down in a foreclosure. That's on the rise, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
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