The jobs report for July wasn't the calm descent into stable normalcy that the Federal Reserve — and everyone else — wanted. Consensus expectations were 185,000 new nonfarm jobs and continued unemployment of 4.1%, according to polling of economists by Dow Jones. What arrived was 117,000 jobs and unemployment shooting up to 4.3%. May and June jobs were revised downward by 29,000.

Many observers predict that the results almost locks in a September rate cut. But comments go further. Combined with a fourth straight month of manufacturing contraction as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported, and weakening wages, this has raised concern that the Fed has waited too long for cuts.

As various executives at the central bank have mentioned multiple times, there is a danger in monetary strategies. Make a timing mistake in changing rates and inflation could return. Go the other direction and the economy could tip into a recession. The Fed has been walking a tightrope for many months.