There have been big questions about how likely a recession might be. The vaunted inverted yield curve, which was supposed to indicate an oncoming recession, has left many wondering how much predictive power is left. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon projected there was a 65% chance of a recession.

But uncertainty is creeping into the voices of some of the experts. Wharton economist Jeremy Siegel thought that the Federal Reserve needed to make an immediate 75-basis point cut in August with another in September, then he almost immediately changed his mind as markets recovered.

Now Goldman Sachs just made a U-turn in its prediction. Right after that Monday market crash — the same one that sparked Siegel's first forecast— economists at the bank said there was a 25% chance of a recession, an increase from 15%. That Goldman report said July unemployment rate increase exaggerated "the downside risk" as more than 70% of the July increase was due to temporary layoffs and that a sharp labor drop-off is unlikely as the economy still shows strong growth.