With a rate cut a virtual lock-in for Wednesday, markets facing the weekend have guessed 55% to 45% chance that it will be a quarter point over a half point, according to CME FedWatch. Even last Thursday, the odds were stacked more heavily toward the 25-basis-point possibility.

Nothing major had changed. It might be that investors are getting anxious or excited, anticipating a change. In multifamily CRE, though, it's unclear what the practical implications will be. New construction has been on a tear, hitting historical levels in both 2023 and 2024. The activity has pushed down rent growth and pushed vacancy rates up in some areas, particularly in the Sun Belt — a matter of excess supply in some places where others have excess demand.

Those that have seen more building and increasing supply are being wary. "I think for 99% of all of us out there, a 25bps rate cut won't make much difference at all except for a few acquisitions of existing properties," Jeff Klotz, CEO for the Klotz Group of Companies, which focuses on Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, told GlobeSt.com. "There are a lot of multifamily developers sitting on land that are ready to break ground, including myself, and we need a whole lot more than just a 25bps rate cut to move the needle much at all, much less make the deals underwrite."