Rate Reduction Roadmap: Charting CRE's Course Through Varied Forecasts

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%, marks the beginning of a series of anticipated rate reductions that are expected to significantly influence the commercial real estate market. According to projections from the Federal Reserve, two additional rate cuts are expected this year, with four more planned for 2025. Based on expectations for neutral policy rates, the Fed anticipates completing or nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle by early 2026, as analyzed by Cushman & Wakefield.

This forecast is in line with CBRE’s prediction of 25 basis point cuts in both November and December, followed by an additional 125 basis points in reductions next year. The market has responded with caution; interest-rate futures contracts now indicate a 70% probability of a quarter-point cut in November, rising from 65% following recent economic data that showed an unexpected drop in unemployment insurance claims. The recent rate cut also decreased the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) by 50 basis points. Assuming risk spreads over the base rate remain stable, floating rate debt has become less expensive, according to Cushman & Wakefield. This reduction may assist some borrowers in finalizing deals and help others manage existing floating-rate debt challenges.

In terms of spreads, fixed-rate debt is currently priced at approximately 175 to 250 basis points over Treasuries, aligning with historical averages. The reduction in overall debt costs due to lower base rates aids the financial engineering of commercial real estate deals by restoring some neutral or positive leverage conditions for fixed-rate products relative to cap rates. Floating rate debt, linked to SOFR, remains priced in the 7% to 7.5% range but is expected to decrease following the rate cut. Cushman & Wakefield noted that further rate cuts would be necessary before floating rate debt achieves neutral or positive leverage territory.

Looking ahead, CBRE anticipates that the 10-year Treasury yield will remain below 4% by the year’s end and settle in the mid-3% range throughout most of 2025. This outlook is more optimistic than Fitch Ratings’, which projects the 10-year yield ending 2026 at 3.50%, close to its current level of around 3.70%. These rate cuts and lower bond yields are anticipated to positively impact commercial real estate. CBRE forecasts a 5% increase in annual investment activity this year, with further acceleration expected in 2025. Additionally, the combination of easier monetary policy and reduced borrowing costs is likely to stimulate investment and potentially enhance asset values within the sector.

The timeline for these effects depends on the pace of the rate cuts. According to Cushman & Wakefield’s analysis, it is widely believed that the neutral rate—where Fed policy neither restrains nor stimulates growth—lies between 2.5% and 3%. Although the federal funds rate has been reduced by 50 basis points, it remains significantly above this neutral range by about 175 to 200 basis points, which continues to suppress economic growth and consequently demand for commercial real estate space.