Rent-Burdened Swing State Voters Could Decide Election Outcome

The economy has been a major topic in the run-up to the Nov. 5 election, and how people perceive housing affordability is expected to be an important issue on voters’ minds.

In swing states, which likely will play a major role in deciding who wins the election, the typical renter is ‘rent burdened,” which means they spend more than 30% of their income on housing, according to a Redfin report. The average household in swing states earns about $50,267 per year, about $10,365 less than they need to earn to afford a median-priced apartment. A swing state renter making the median income would now need to spend 36.2% of their income to rent a median-priced apartment, down from 38.5% last year and 37.8% during the prior election cycle, said Redfin.

Rental affordability has been improving thanks to rising incomes and downward pressure on rents prompted by a post-pandemic homebuilding boom.

“America’s swing state voters will decide the outcome of the next presidential election based on the candidates’ plans for tackling key issues including the housing affordability crisis,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “While the economy has been improving on paper, that’s not what it feels like for a lot of U.S. families. Many renters — especially young people — still feel the rent is too damn high.”

Redfin considers this year’s swing states to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

Arizona experienced the largest improvement in rental affordability because it saw the largest increase in incomes and the smallest increase in rents, said Redfin. The estimated median income of renter households in Arizona ($57,961) has risen 32.2% since the last election, while the median asking rent ($1,488) has climbed 18.9%. Arizona’s asking rents have fallen 4.6% over the past year — the biggest decline of any swing state.

Michigan is the only swing state where rental affordability has worsened since the last election. The typical renter household in Michigan earns 16.3% less than they need to afford the median-priced apartment — worse than the 11.2% shortfall during the last election as asking rents in Michigan have jumped 12.4% over the last year, more than any other swing state.