Although much of the U.S. has been "over-retailed" for decades, new findings from Colliers suggest that migration patterns during and after the coronavirus pandemic may be opening (and closing) doors for retail investors across the country.

An analysis of real estate markets with at least 300,000 people as of 2024 found that retail per capita has decreased drastically in fast-growing cities in the Sunbelt, such as Austin and Myrtle Beach. Meanwhile, midsize markets in the Midwest and Great Lakes areas, which have experienced population declines since 2000, are seeing the opposite trend, with increases in retail per capita.

Aaron Jodka, Colliers' research director for U.S. capital markets, noted that the aggregate level of retail in the country, on a per capita basis, has decreased by just one square foot—from 57 to 56 square feet—since the mid-2000s. This suggests that retail development has remained relatively aligned with population growth.