Trepp has released its analysis of bank CRE loans for the second quarter of 2024. Bank-held commercial real estate origination rates have risen modestly overall from $3.5 billion in Q1 to $3.9 billion. The low increase is likely a combination of higher interest rates and tighter lending standards, "with investors and lenders exercising caution," according to the software firm.
An increase quarter-over-quarter still means drops from the 2019 pre-pandemic average. The biggest fall was in retail, down 78%. Next was office, off by 65%. Multifamily fell by 61%, industrial by 52%, and lodging by 39%. The overall number was -58%. So, even with quarter-over-quarter improvements, markets face "significant headwinds," said Trepp.
Office leads in the undesirable category of net charge-offs, even though it was down from about 2.50% in Q1 to 2.25% in the second quarter. Lodging is next, hovering at about 1%. Retail is around 0.5%, multifamily at maybe 0.1%, and industrial at virtually 0%. According to Trepp, lodging is only as high as it is because it has maintained a low loan balance, so with the way the number is calculated, even a small increase in total net charge-offs can cause a bigger increase in the charge-off rate.
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