Generative artificial intelligence in the form of text-based large language models has been touted as something that could develop into artificial general intelligence (AGI) — if it isn't there already, say the promoters.

AGI is supposed to be software that can approach or even surpass human cognition in areas like reasoning, problem-solving, perception, learning, and language comprehension, according to McKinsey. Potential buyers and users of such technology need to know whether the promises are reasonable today, something years out, or claims that are fantasy.

More studies are coming out, some of which cast doubts on how effective LLMs are in reasoning. A recent study by researchers at the University of Virginia and the University of Washington suggested that some of the more important promised applications in CRE — those involving time series forecasting — might not be good ones.