Consumer resiliency has helped drive core retail sales to a new record in August, with spending up in real terms even after factoring in core CPI inflation. This strength helped drive tenant demand, and the retail sector entered the second half of 2024 as the only major CRE property type with a vacancy rate below its year-end 2019 mark, according to Marcus & Millichap's Q4 national retail report.

Retail vacancy across the country has remained below 5% for 11 straight quarters while average asking rents have increased. Conditions are even tighter when California is removed from the equation. Vacancy across the 42 major markets located outside the state collectively dipped 10 basis points to 4.3 percent over the year ended in June, with tenants absorbing a net of 32 million square feet.

Potential headwinds remain for the retail sector, including tightening household budgets and labor market softness, the report noted. But the September rate cut should help save consumers money on mortgages, vehicle loans and credit card fees, which could bolster discretionary spending, retail foot traffic and tenant demand for space.