The surge in U.S. job growth in recent months means that an additional 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November is likely off the table, and even a 25 basis point cut may be optimistic, in the view of John Chang, senior vice president for research services at Marcus & Millichap.

However, for CRE, rising employment is a positive, he said in a video. "It creates additional demand for housing, increased consumption for retailers, increased warehouse throughput and maybe, just maybe, it will put some of those workers back in offices."

When the Fed announced a 50 bps rate cut on September 18, it drew praise for attempting to get ahead of any potential recession risks. However, the October 4 employment report revealed not only that job growth was stronger than expected, with 254,000 jobs added in September, but also that 72,000 more jobs were created in July and August than originally estimated – "a real curveball," Chang said.

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.