Retailers are looking forward to a strong Christmas season this year, and consumers also plan to spend more, two new surveys report. However, a third survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York presents a more cautious view with a slight decrease in expected spending growth even though more respondents say credit conditions have improved.

The National Retail Federation's forecast of winter holiday spending will leave shopkeepers smiling. It projects a 2.5 to 3.5% increase above 2023's $955.6 billion retail revenue – or between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in 2024 spending. A large part of that will be due to online shopping, which is expected to rise from 8% to 9%. That would equate to a range of $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion, between $21.8 billion to $24.6 billion more than consumers spent online in 2023.

"Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season," noted the Federation's chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.