What CRE Can Learn From Changing State Voting Patterns

Population migration patterns that affect CRE demand for housing, retail and logistics services may also influence the voting patterns of states. A recent analysis by Realtor.com of geographic home shopping trends paired with 2020 county-level election results could provide useful insights for the CRE industry.

Beginning more than 20 years ago, the terms “red state” and “blue state” have referred to US states whose voters vote predominately for one party – the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in blue states.

The Realtor.com analysis determines the likelihood of each online home shopping view to be associated with a blue, red or independent voter by assuming that the political affiliations of online home shoppers mirror the voter distribution in their respective counties. For example, If 60% of voters in a particular county were Democrats, Realtor.com estimated that the same percentage of online traffic in that county comes from blue shoppers.

When a state receives a higher influx of blue shoppers compared with red shoppers, the study assumes it is a more appealing out-of-state destination for blue buyers and vice versa. The study also considered the retention rate of local home shoppers predicted to be affiliated with either party to determine if a state may trend more red or more blue when combined with influx data.

Using this methodology, Realtor.com found that New Jersey had the largest difference between blue and red influx rates, attracting more blue shoppers, while Tennessee had the largest difference in favor of red out-of-state buyers. New Mexico retains the most in-state blue shoppers when compared to the rate of red shoppers, and New York retains the most in-state red home shoppers.

Both blue and red out-of-state home shoppers showed strong interest in homes in the South, likely due to affordability and warmer climates. Florida, Texas and North Carolina were top destinations for both blue and red shoppers.

As for potential shifts in voting patterns, the report found four blue states could trend even more Democratic, seven blue states could trend redder, three red states could shift bluer and 12 red states could become redder during the upcoming election. Three swing states could trend redder and two swing states could shift bluer, according to the report. Two additional swing states show no definitive direction either way.