There has been an unfortunate inclination to look at commercial real estate and lenders in a homogenous blend since the beginning of the downturn in 2022. That isn't the case, said MSCI in a report called, "The What and the When Matter for the Losses of Real-Estate Lenders." When estimating losses — and not all will face them — types of properties and loan origination timing are the key factors.

"There is a timeline of the market cycle, how prices have evolved," Jim Costello, executive director of MSCI Research, told GlobeSt.com. "If you did a 10-year loan and originated a loan in 2015 for an apartment building, you had so much price growth along the way, you're probably going to be able to refinance."

If borrowers started in 2022 with short-term loans that were fashionable at the time — a three-year loan, maybe, and 80% loan-to-value on an apartment in the Southeast — "there's a low chance of getting refinancing" when it comes time for the borrower to get it.