For years, the CRE industry — borrowers, lenders, developers, analysts, brokers, and regulators — have wondered how everyone would manage coming waves of maturities. Answers are starting to develop.

Earlier this month, Moody's released a report that examined commercial real estate loan modification disclosures from 39 banks. The median percentage of modified CRE loans more than doubled year over year in the first half of 2024. That moved from 18 basis points from 2023 to 48. Depending on the bank, the offered modifications ranged from none to more than 2%.

The 39 were all banks with more than $100 billion in assets and CRE to tangible common equity greater than 150%. Additionally, they had detailed disclosures on CRE loan modifications. It's unclear how Moody's is measuring assets as the Federal Reserve's list of large U.S. chartered commercial banks shows only 29 with at least $100 billion in assets.