Expectations of the 10-year Treasury yield had been, in late September, a rate below 4%, through the end of 2024 and then a period of settling into a mid-3% range through 2025.
But that seems to have gone out the window. There was an upward march starting in early October. It jumped from last Friday at 4.08% to 4.20% at Tuesday's close. The forward predictive curve at Derivative Logic shows the yield dropping to just over 4% by the end of the year and not getting to 4.2% until October 2025.
There was The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator. It declined by 0.5% to 99.7 in September 2024, following a 0.3% retreat in August. Between March and September, it dropped by 2.6%. The previous six-month period saw a 2.2% fall.
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