If you believe a particular projection by Goldman Sachs, then the 10-year Treasury market has given investors a nail-biter. It had closed on Monday with a 4.28% yield, the estimation by the bank had to do with a 4.30% target, and intraday trading had bested that figure. The close on Tuesday was down to 4.28% — still only two basis points from the figure.

About a week ago, economic analysis website ZeroHedge posted on X a snippet from a Goldman Sachs report: "Historically, a 2 SD move in US 10 yr yield, equivalent to around 60 bps today (3yr lookback), over a month is when equity market returns are below avg. Given we've moved 46bps MTD, this simple rule of thumb argues that a move towards 4.30% is where things would get tricky for stocks."

Or, in regular English, a two-standard-deviation move in the yield of the 10-year Treasury — about equivalent to 60 basis points — over a month when equity market returns are below average roughly translates to a 4.30% 10-year yield is the point at which there is an inflection point that can affect many parts of the economy.