Strategies for Surviving the Wall of Loan Maturities

The commercial real estate industry is facing an impeding avalanche of loan maturities. There is currently $5.9 trillion in commercial real estate debt in the market, and more than half of it will mature in the next three years. In a traditional market, this would be a tremendous opportunity for loan originators, but due to macro-economic headwinds and high interest rates, many borrowers will face challenges refinancing maturing debt.

Thankfully, borrowers have options, says Ann Hambly, founder and CEO of 1^st Service Solutions. She says that knowing those options is the key to surviving the wall of maturities.

Know Your Options

Borrowers often falsely believe that they have only two options to address an upcoming maturity: pay off the loan in full or hand the property back to the bank. Hambly says there are actually several other options that borrowers can pursue. Borrowers can extend the loan with a capital infusion, modify the debt, raise money, shop for a new loan or sell the property.

Hambly advises getting a debt advisor on board who will run through all of the possible scenarios. The right debt advisor is in lender and servicer shops daily, and they know the complete menu of solutions that can be applied to the loan. “That is what a good debt advisor does,” says Hambly. “They are in this business daily, and they can offer a menu of options to the borrower. Then, the owner can make a more educated decision. That is key.”

Start a Year in Advance

When analyzing potential solutions, Hambly suggests starting a year in advance. “We run options in a financial model, and the owner needs a few months to digest that and understand the best scenario for them,” says Hambly. If the list of solutions includes selling the property, raising money or shopping for a new loan, the borrower also has time to perform due diligence on those scenarios.

On the flip side, many borrowers ask Hambly if it can be too late to look at options. She says it is never too late, but it is always better to be proactive.

Lenders Want to Make a Deal

With more than $3 trillion in maturities coming due by 2028, borrowers aren’t alone in feeling pressure. Lenders are also need address loan maturities, and they want to avoid a wall of defaults. While borrowers have multiple options, lenders have only two: work out a deal with the borrower or take the property back.

“When an owner comes to the table with a resolution, the lender simply has to look to see if they will make it out better with the lender or without,” says Hambly. If the borrower can offer an attractive enough solution for the former, even if that means the lender incurs some loss, they will likely take the deal.