A significant change in immigration policy under President-Elect Trump could have a resounding effect across virtually every facet of the commercial real estate sector, said Marcus & Millichap national director of research and advisory services John Chang.
To better understand how a more restrictive immigration policy would impact the market, Chang looked back at President Trump's first term in the White House, when he initiated some policies to mitigate illegal immigration that also affected legal immigration to the United States. Legal immigration dropped between 2017 and 2021 from a little more than 1 million per year when Trump took office, to 570,000 in 2019. That number fell even further in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic, said Chang. When President Biden took office in 2021, legal immigration trended back up and stood at 1.1 million total net migration in 2023.
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