Retail during the holidays has been a case of down and up. In September, sales — excluding autos and gasoline — were up 0.55% year-over-year but down 0.32% from August. Then they went back up month-over-month by 0.83% in October, according to National Retail Federation figures.
However, there are signs that a lot of consumers are looking for a bargain. When it comes to discount and dollar stores, foot traffic is surging, according to Placer.ai. In 2024 Q3, for example, visits to Dollar Tree and Dollar General were up by 5.3% and 4.8% year-over-year. October 2024 visits for the two chains were up from September by 7.6% and 7.8%, respectively.
November and December are typically the high points, as Black Friday, Christmas Eve, and Boxing Day “drive consumers to the tills.” However, visitation patterns can differ for discount and dollar establishments.
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The big chains are clearly positioned for bargain shoppers and not tied in with big sale days. Consumers presume the discounts are already included. Placer.ai compared weekly visit numbers in 2021 through 2023. Dollar Tree visits increase from early November to the last full week before Christmas, “likely driven by shoppers flocking to its stores to pick up snacks, gift wrap, and stocking stuffers,” Placer.ai wrote.
Dollar General visits don’t get the same size of spikes as Dollar Tree receives. The analyst firm posits that one explanation could be the expansion of Dollar General’s Market concept. They have turned many stores into fresh food destinations. It might be that consumers are treating more of Dollar General’s locations as grocery stores and not places for holiday shopping.
Taking 2023 as an example of the difference in visit growth, the weeks in question are November 6, November 13, November 20, November 27, December 4, December 11, and December 18. Looking at visits in those weeks, Dollar Tree changes were 2.2%, 8.3%, 12.6%, 17.8%, 26.4%, 37.2%, and 74.6%. For Dollar General, the numbers were -2.9%; -1.1%; 10.3%; 2.7%; 3.4%; 7%, and 27.3%.
It’s an interesting comparison, but three years is a limited sampling which might mean that at different times, other patterns might emerge.
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