A surge of homes hitting the market as Baby Boomers downsize is expected to boost housing supply in lower-density areas across the U.S. over the next 15 years, potentially reshaping regional demographics, according to a new report from Zillow. More than a quarter — 27.4% — of the nation’s owner-occupied homes could be listed for sale in the next two decades as Boomers vacate their properties.
The anticipated "silver tsunami" of home sales is likely to inject significant supply into Midwest and Southern markets, where many empty-nest households are concentrated. This shift could redefine housing availability in these regions and create new opportunities for homebuyers. However, the impact on affordability is expected to be uneven. High-cost markets like Seattle, Austin, and Denver — where housing demand is most acute due to employment opportunities — are unlikely to see a meaningful increase in supply from this trend.
Zillow's report highlights that the number of so-called "empty nest" households reached 20.9 million in 2022, up from 20.2 million in 2017. These households, defined as older owners with no children at home and at least two extra bedrooms, are most prevalent in markets like Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Cleveland. In Pittsburgh, 22% of households fall into this category — the highest share among large metros — followed by Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit.
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In contrast, cities like Austin, Salt Lake City, and Denver, where younger households are flocking in large numbers, have significantly fewer empty-nest households. In Austin, only 10% of households meet this definition, well below the national average of 16%. These metros are also among the tightest housing markets, where demand continues to outpace supply.
While 20.9 million empty-nest households exist nationwide, only 8.1 million families are "doubled up" — meaning living with non-relatives and in need of their own housing, according to Zillow. However, much of the potential housing supply from downsizing Boomers is concentrated in regions with relatively low demand. Markets like Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Detroit have the largest gap between the potential supply from empty-nest households and the demand from younger buyers.
Despite this influx of potential supply, the long-term impact on affordability remains uncertain. While many of the homes vacated by Boomers may ease pressure in lower-demand markets, high-cost, high-demand metros are unlikely to see similar relief. Zillow's report suggests that affordability in these pricier areas may not be significantly affected. Instead, the more profound effect could be a reshaping of housing markets in regions where older homeowners have long held on to properties. That shift could attract new residents and realign housing demand in unpredictable ways.
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