Homebuyers who can navigate today’s challenging market may emerge as winners in 2025, despite high mortgage rates and a persistent housing shortage. And as the holiday season settles in, eager buyers, particularly in colder regions, could take advantage of the seasonal slowdown to secure a favorable deal with less competition.
Mortgage broker Jennifer Beeston believes that while rates are expected to stay elevated and volatile next year, buyers who act quickly or find their ideal price point could still benefit. Fluctuations in inflation and employment data are likely to keep mortgage rates steady. The broker said that while inflation may ease, the uncertainty surrounding the new administration entering office in January will likely prolong the current rate environment.
Some markets, especially those with oversupply, have seen prices dip from their peaks. However, the overall housing shortage continues to push demand. A lack of available inventory remains a key factor driving competition, despite the higher cost of borrowing. Beeston added that the slow holiday season could offer a brief window for buyers to capitalize on reduced competition, especially in colder climates where shorter days and snow discourage some from continuing their search. Buyers who are ready to act could seize the opportunity to secure a deal amid market volatility, where price fluctuations tend to be more pronounced.
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Existing home sales in October saw a 3.4% increase, marking the first year-over-year rise in nearly three years, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. The median sales price rose 4% year-over-year to $407,200, extending a streak of 16 consecutive months of price gains.
Sales improved across all major regions. The Midwest saw a 6.7% increase from September to October. The Northeast experienced the largest year-over-year price increase, at 7.6%. However, inventory remained tight at a 4.2-month supply, suggesting that competition among buyers remains fierce.
As winter approaches, buyers could find themselves in a stronger position than in recent months, particularly in markets where the seasonal slowdown reduces competition. Although affordability challenges persist, rising inventory and shifting market dynamics could present opportunities for those willing to navigate the volatility.
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