Lodging Analytics Research & Consulting (LARC) has projected that a “bottoming of negative pressure on the U.S. consumer, soft comparisons, and growing inbound foreign arrivals (aided by a moderating U.S. Dollar)” would help the hotel industry shrug off some slower-than-expected performance and lead to higher demand in 2025.

In its December 20204 client letter, the firm noted that the 2.8% real GDP annualized growth in the third quarter was slightly under the 3% rate in Q2. The growth was still respectable, however, U.S. Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) grew only 0.9%, down from the 2.4% RevPAR in the second quarter.

Although the timing didn’t allow a fuller impact, it could be that Hurricane Helene caused problems through property damage. The nonfarm employment report for October showed volatility, as the consultancy noted, with only 12,000 jobs reported. Helene and Hurricane Milton likely undercut reporting, but the upward revision for October was only an additional 24,000 to reach 36,000 versus the original report of 12,000.