Last Saturday night, if you wondered whether the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates and you checked CME FedWatch, which follows the futures market for predictive value, you would have seen a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. That was 200 basis points lower than a similar check a few days earlier.
What might make this seem odd is that the Consumer Price Index report for November showed an increase to 2.7%. October also showed rising inflation. Cutting rates would seem the opposite of what the Fed might have been expected to do, keeping things steady.
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