As much as everyone would like an easy sign of how the economy will perform in 2025, it’s complicated. The recent jobless claims report is a reminder that finding a safe path will take a lot more work for everyone, from top Federal Reserve officials to CRE investors.
There are multiple points to consider in last week’s jobless claims report. First is the number of initial claims at 219,000 for the week ending December 14, a drop of 1,000 from the previous week. That’s an average of 227,780 from the start of 2024. The 4-week moving average was 226,500. A graph of the data for the year shows what is first a rising number of weekly claims to the end of August and then a gentle downward slope.
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