Marcus & Millichap expects the pace of job growth to step back in 2025 due to a continued elevated interest rate climate dampening business expansion.

Although the Fed began reducing rates in September, current expectations call for only two additional rate cuts in 2025, with the overnight rate expected to drop to 3.75%, said Marcus & Millichap SVP and national director of research and advisory services, John Chang. The overnight rate had been expected to drop into the low 3% range just a few months ago.

“Expectations have shifted significantly since October,” said Chang. “Basically, the Fed is being very cautious about inflation risk.”

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