Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced plans to reduce imports from China. Instead, the country will offer a variety of incentives for nearshoring and to increase the amount of locally made goods and materials.
The announcement is effectively part of a recent series of events and announcements at levels of manufacturing, logistics, and finance to support trade between Mexico and the United States even as Donald Trump has called for a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada. Now, though, a doubling down on nearshoring could have important implications for industrial CRE.
“If North America replaces 10% of the imports we are getting from China, and we make them in North America, Mexico’s GDP would grow 1.2% more than it normally does, the US 0.8% more and Canada 0.2% more,” finance minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O said during an event, according to Bloomberg.
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Mexico is the largest trade partner of the U.S. One of the biggest aspects of that is nearshoring and multiple stakeholder voices have been making their concerns and intents known.
In early December, Bank of America's Mexico head, Emilio Romano, said, “It will be very difficult for uncertainties, either internal or external effects to alter or modify the opportunities that we see in Mexico. We believe that the near-shoring or friend-shoring phenomenon will not be reversed.” He also said that the bank expects to double revenue, with client volume growing from 400 to 800, all over the next five years in Mexico. The bank focuses on institutional banking services and doesn’t serve individual clients.
Logistics companies have made clear that nearshoring was going to stay on their radar. U.S. freight broker C.H. Robinson Worldwide has more than 1.5 million square feet of cross-dock and warehousing space along the border, as the company’s president of North American surface transportation Michael Castagnetto explained at a recent investors’ day.
“And we are super proud of the teams in both Mexico and Canada for all the work they do for us,” he said. “We also recently announced our next generation of logistics management through C.H. Robinson managed solutions. Through this offering, we're meeting customers where and how they want to buy, tailored customer-centric solutions that provide the highest value for them. This offering solves a growing gap in the marketplace that none of our competition can match.”
All nearshoring requires U.S. facilities for manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing. There will likely be more incentives from Mexico’s government which plans tax deductions for local and foreign companies, with higher ones for technology and R&D through October 2030. And the country looks to increase public and private investment to more than 25% of GDP.
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