Since 2022, many in the multifamily industry (and other parts of CRE) have told GlobeSt.com that they expect “next year” to be when markets straighten out. When interest rates fell enough; when bid-ask spreads contracted; when deals got done; when price discovery came back.

Those predictions never came entirely true. Maybe not even close. A discussion with lender NewPoint Real Estate Capital’s Marty Fayer, senior managing director on the company’s originations team, suggested that conditions going into 2025 are leading to another year of the same.

Fayer thinks that “2025 felt great until rates started moving up, the 5-, 7-, and 10-year Treasury, and the likelihood of SOFR rate cuts ameliorating. It’s a little bit of a question market in terms of what 2025 will look like in terms of refinances and acquisition financing.”