Some apartment markets are more difficult to predict than others in the United States, offering a wider range of possible performance outcomes than others that tend to fit into a neat category of market profiles. RealPage identified five such markets to watch over the coming year.

In New York, it is difficult to pinpoint how much of an impact supply has in certain neighborhoods, and peak supply isn’t expected to arrive in the city until early 2026 when 32,000 units are planned for delivery. This is a considerable increase from 2024 supply levels of about 19,000 units, RealPage said. Occupancy in the Big Apple has improved to 97% from its low point in the early 2020s cycle, suggesting rent growth could be similar to other gateway market peers during the coming months. However, RealPage said a wide range of performance outcomes are possible in New York this year.

Meanwhile, Denver saw rents drop roughly 3.5% to end 2024, which represents one of the deepest cuts among the top 50 US markets. The city’s supply peak remains a few months away, but when it arrives, it is expected to add about 6.5% of existing inventory. Whether demand may be improving is unknown, but annual job growth of nearly 1% in December, the strongest performance since October 2023, could be a positive indicator.