The global trade world has gotten off a rocky start to the week, as President Donald Trump announced a minimum of 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. He also wants to set import tariffs to match what other countries charge and has suggested tariffs on goods from the EU. Then there is the incremental 10% tariff on goods from China.
According to Goldman Sachs, there will be a significant impact on corporate earnings, cutting between 2% and 3% per share for earnings for the S&P 500. Considering the index as an imperfect proxy to the U.S. economy, this could create extensive setbacks to CRE interests.
Goldman economists estimate that the effective U.S. tariff rate could increase by 470 basis points. If the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are ultimately implemented (they are in the middle of a 30-day suspension), the effective tariff rate could rise by an additional 5.8 percentage points.
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