It’s not exactly news that 2025 will be a time of reckoning for many holders of commercial loans that mature this year. But the scale of the loans coming due may well be surprising: $957 billion.

That is an increase of 3% from the $929 billion that matured in 2024. It is also 20% of the $4.8 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages now held by lenders and investors, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The increase may be result of a rise in long-term interest rates that took many borrowers by surprise and washed out some of the benefits expected when the Fed cut short-term rates by 100 basis points last year. “As a result, many loans that might have matured in 2024 have been extended into 2025, with the aggregate results showing a 3% increase in total commercial mortgages maturing in 2025 compared to what MBA had estimated would mature last year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist.